World Mink Output to Slip for Second Year

FUR COMMISSION USA PRESS RELEASE, OCTOBER 7, 2009
World Mink Output to Slip for Second Year
By Simon Ward, Communications Director, FCUSA
The global supply of ranched mink pelts is expected to fall again this year, marking the second year of shrinkage after reaching an all-time high in 2007. The main factor behind the expansion and now the correction has been volatile production in China, but other countries, notably Russia, have cut back output, doubtless in part because of the global economic recession.
World output began increasing steadily in 1999, with most producers responding to ever-stronger prices at auction, fueled by growing demand for mink pelts, particularly in China and Russia. Then along came 2008, the year when economies everywhere turned pear-shaped, and the mink-farming sector was obliged to rein in its enthusiasm for expansion.
According to the latest statistics released annually by Oslo Fur Auctions, 2009 will mark the second straight year of downward adjustment, with the world harvest totalling 46.50 million pelts. This represents a 7.5% drop from the revised output of 50.27 million in 2008, which in turn was down 9.9% from 55.79 million in 2007.
If Oslo’s prediction is accurate, it means output will be slightly above that in 2005, which stood at 44.58 million.
The most dramatic adjustment has been in China. Just a decade ago, in 2000, it is estimated to have produced 3.3 million pelts. Although it already ranked as the world’s second-largest producer, it was far behind leader Denmark, with 10.9 million. China then embarked on a dramatic expansion, peaking in 2007 with an estimated output of 18 million pelts, or about one-third of world output. The following year, its production plunged to about 12 million, and in 2009 is expected to slump further to just 9 million.
Estimating Chinese output has always been something of a guessing game, since its generally inferior pelts do not pass through the international auction system. However, industry insiders have indicated that the rapid expansion brought on board many newcomers to mink farming whose end product sold for poor prices, causing them to cut back production or switch to other forms of animal agriculture altogether.
With the decline of China, Denmark resumed its customary position as top producer last year. Danish production this year is forecast at 14 million, unchanged since 2007.
Forecasts for other major producers are as follows: the Netherlands: 4.5 million, unchanged; Poland: 3.7 million, up 15.6%; the USA: 2.8 million, down 6.7%; Canada: 2.3 million, unchanged; Finland: 2.1 million, up 10.5%; the Baltic States: 2 million, unchanged; Russia: 1.3 million, down 35%; Sweden: 1.2 million, down 7.7%; Belarus: 600,000, down 25%; and Norway: 600,000, down 9.1%.
The biggest mover and shaker at the moment is Poland, which continues its expansion trend dating all the way back to 1994, when it produced just 30,000 pelts. Over the last five years (2005-09), it has seen average annual growth of 19.9%, firmly establishing itself as the world’s fourth-largest producer.
The other big mover this year appears to be Russia. After a dramatic peak in production in 1995 of 4.8 million pelts (up from 1.5 million in the previous two years), output since has fallen sometimes sharply, sometimes less so, and occasionally even edging up. If Oslo’s prediction of 1.3 million pelts in 2009 bears out, it will be the lowest since it began compiling statistics in 1981. In several years during this period, Russia ranked as the world’s second-largest producer. Today it ranks a lowly ninth.
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