World mink crop seen dipping

SANDY PARKER REPORT, VOL. 32, ISSUE 43, JANUARY 19, 2009
The following extract is reproduced with permission from Sandy Parker Reports, Weekly International Fur News. Sandy Parker has been covering the fur industry for more than four decades. For most of that time he has published a weekly newsletter, detailing results of international pelt auctions, wholesale price trends, business developments and movements in the trade, as well as economic and political activities that may impact on it.
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International Fur News
with Sandy Parker
World mink crop seen dipping
WORLD MINK PRODUCTION, WHICH DECLINED IN 2008 AFTER MORE THAN A DECADE OF STEADY INCREASES, could shrink further this year if reduced demand results in sharply lower prices. But unlike last year’s cutback, which mainly reflected a 30% slash by Chinese farmers, this year’s reduction would be worldwide and likely attributable to the effects of the recession on consumer spending in general and on luxury goods in particular. The first clue will come from the big opening round of auctions, beginning with Kopenhagen Fur, where prices are expected to reflect this season’s retail sales, especially in such major markets as China and Russia.
The mink breeding season begins about March 1, so ranchers will be playing close attention to what happens in Copenhagen Feb. 3-6 and at North American Fur Auctions in Toronto Feb. 17-23. Reports so far indicate retail fur sales in the northern regions of China and Russia – where temperatures have turned cold – have been okay, but both countries have caught the recession bug, although maybe not to the same extent as in the West. Nevertheless, plunging oil prices have taken a toll on Russians’ discretionary spending power and this year’s earlier Chinese New Year (Jan. 26-28) detracts from their prime selling season.
NORTH AMERICAN RANCHERS ARE DESCRIBED AS ‘UP IN THE AIR’ as to their production plans. Last year, they got record prices for their pelts, the U.S. male/female average hitting an all-time high of $65.70. But, in the past two decades, there have been only eight years in which prices averaged over $35, which ranchers considered their break-even point. More recently, however, that break-even has been estimated at closer to $40 – even higher for Canadian ranchers. It would take a 40% drop for prices to come down to that level and no one is predicting a collapse of that nature.
IN THIS ISSUE:
World Mink Crop Seen Dipping
Ranchers Weigh Big Cutbacks
Recession, Disease Key Factors
Auction Limits Still Unknown
U.S. Imports in Steep Decline
For extracts from back issues of Sandy Parker Reports see News Index. Subscribers can access an archive of complete issues at www.sandyparker.com.
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